David Singer: Gantz Trojan Horse threatens Israel as the Jewish National Home

Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

 He writes:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has paid a high price for the National Unity Government being forged with Benny Gantz – by agreeing to Gantz becoming Israel’s Prime Minister in 18 months’ time without going to an election.

Netanyahu had run out of time to explore other options – having had that decision foisted on him by two extraordinary High Court of Justice cases ordering the Knesset Speaker – Yuli Edelstein – to convene the Knesset contrary to the Knesset’s own rules and procedures. Compliance by Edelstein would have unleashed a train of events that would have caused havoc and instability at a time when unity was sorely needed. Edelstein resigned.

It is indeed a miracle that Netanyahu and Gantz rescued Israel from this rapidly escalating political and constitutional crisis at the same time as Israel is coping with the ravages of Covid-19.

Gantz’s courage in dumping his partners in Blue and White – Yair Lapid and Moshe Ya’alon – when any hope of averting the crisis seemed lost and just as the doors of the Knesset were shortly to open – was praised by the Right but condemned by Lapid and Ya’alon in bitter and derogatory terms.

Gantz’s new found ally – Yisrael Beiteinu’s Avigdor Lieberman – was left high and dry – ruing his stupidity at having missed three opportunities in the last 12 months to be in Government with Netanyahu – making demands he absolutely refused to compromise on during negotiations with Netanyahu.

Lieberman was relegated to the Opposition benches with his six colleagues – a kingmaker no more.

Forgiven was the havoc caused when Gantz started to flirt with Joint List – the bloc comprising 15 members from the four Arab political parties – who endorsed Gantz to form the next Government – persuading Israeli President Reuven Rivlin to regrettably give Gantz first try to do so.

Joint List’s objectives include dismantling Israel as the Jewish National Home.

Joint List Chairman Ahmad Tibi had openly articulated this goal to Rivlin in September 2019:

“Some people think we are the backyard of the State of Israel, we are not a backyard, we are not present absentees, we are not guests, we are the owners of this land. Not residents of this country, we did not immigrate here, we were born here, we are a native population, and this native population sent us to make a change.”

Gantz’s decision to embrace Joint List accorded with his first public statement after forming the Resilience Party in December 2018. Druze demonstrators protesting the 2016 Nation-State Law defining Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people and ending Arabic as an official language of Israel – were told by Gantz:

“We have a blood alliance, but just as importantly, we have a life alliance. We need to make sure that we build this partnership and this alliance together, as it should be. I will do all in my power to work to amend the legislation, so it will give expression to this bond, the deep bond that cannot be severed—not just in battle, but also in life; not just in difficulties, but also in good times. We’ll do this together.”

Gantz is perfectly entitled to propound the idea that Israel should become the state of all its citizens – no longer the Jewish National Home reconstituted by the League of Nations 1922 Mandate for Palestine and article 80 of the United Nations Charter.

But to do so as Prime Minister – without receiving any electoral mandate to pursue that highly-controversial policy – is another thing.

The Gantz Trojan Horse is knocking at the Prime Minister’s door – and Netanyahu has let him in.

Author’s note: The cartoon—commissioned exclusively for this article—is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”—one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators—whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

David Singer: Netanyahu and Lieberman Must Rescue Israel from Self-imploding

Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:

Israel is in serious danger of self-imploding as a political, legal, and constitutional crisis of epic proportions is set to erupt.

It can be averted if Israel’s Prime Minister – Benjamin Netanyahu – and head of Yisrael Beiteinu – Avigdor Lieberman – resolve the issue of the ultra-orthodox doing military service – raised by Lieberman 12 months ago.

The looming crisis has been created following the Speaker of the Knesset –Yuri Edelstein – rejecting the advisory opinion of the High Court of Justice that he declare his position as speaker open when the Knesset resumes on 25 March.

In his official response to the High Court – Edelstein stated:

“I won’t agree to ultimatums. I can’t agree because that would make the Knesset’s agenda determined by the High Court and not by the Speaker of the Knesset, who is assigned this role.”

Edelstein’s refusal to commit to any set date comes amidst the uncertainty caused by the ongoing political negotiations to form a government.

The High Court – unmoved by Edelstein’s submission – ordered Edelstein to convene the Knesset by 25 March and hold a vote that could see him replaced.The High Court did not say what actions it would take if Edelstein attempted to ignore the ruling.

Front and centre in this crisis has been the attempt by:

•33 Blue and White members,

•7  Labor-Meretz-Geshermembers

•7 Yisrael Beiteinu members and

•15 Joint List Arab bloc members

to advance legislation barring a Knesset member facing criminal charges from forming a government – effectively disqualifying Netanyahu.

This bloc of 62 members make strange bedfellows:

 •Joint List does not recogniseIsrael as the Jewish National Home

•Blue & White leaders Gantz, Lapid and Ya’alon have personal grievances against Netanyahu going back years

•Lieberman has a fractured relationship with Netanyahu, has refused to sit next to Joint List Knesset members and favoured transfer of Israeli Arabs into a new Palestinian state.

Lieberman had made non-negotiable demands for entering into Government with Netanyahu after the February 2019 indecisive election – which if accepted – would have seen no need for the two elections that followed and this current crisis.

The principal issue was Netanyahu’srefusal to accept a bill drafted by Lieberman calling for ultra-orthodox Jews to do military service. Netanyahu was captive to the ultra-orthodox Jews in his then coalitionwho threatened to bolt if he wavered.

Lieberman would not budge.

A second election followed in September 2019 -when an expected increased turnout by the religious parties to oppose Lieberman’s bill never eventuated. The religious parties’ votes only increased by 91650 whilst Lieberman’s party vote increased by 137,684.

Lieberman again would not yield in his demands –emboldened by his increased vote exceeding that of the religious parties.Israel held its third electionthis month. The religious parties areon far weaker ground this timeas they are locked in to a single negotiating bloc now containing 58 members.

Lieberman is also in a weaker position – having lost 46,789 votes and one seat whilst Netanyahu gained 238,882 votes and 4 seats.

Cutting a deal between Netanyahu and Leiberman remains the only option to prevent Israel entering into a period of complete political and constitutional upheaval once the Knesset sitting commences.

Lieberman and Netanyahu’s shared dream could be the circuit breaker:

Both want to see Jewish sovereignty immediately restored in Judea and Samaria after 3000 years – in tandem with President Trump – whilst Blue & White do not.

Neither can allow their personal antipathy towards each other to miss this golden opportunity.

Netanyahu and Lieberman mustdo a deal before the Knesset sits. They cannot afford to fail.

David Singer: Gantz Promises Chaos and Confusion in Israel for Next Six Weeks

Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:

Benny Gantz’s decision to do a deal with the Joint List to influence President Rivlin into giving Gantz first bite at forming Israel’s next Government is reprehensible, unconscionable and against Israel’s national interest.

Gantz’ decision allows the Joint List with just 15 of the 120 seats in the Knesset and 12.67% of the vote at the recent elections to sow discord and create confusion over the next six weeks as they plot with Gantz to overthrow Netanyahu – Israel's longest serving Prime Minister.

Ahmad Tibi – leader of Ta’al – one of the four parties making up the Joint List – told Israel’s President Reuven Rivlin last September:

“Some people think we are the backyard of the State of Israel, we are not a backyard, we are not present absentees, we are not guests, we are the owners of this land. Not residents of this country, we did not immigrate here, we were born here, we are a native population, and this native population sent us to make a change." 

“Owners of this land”?

Gantz’s new partner was making it crystal clear to Israel’s President that Israel was not recognized by Tibi’s party as the Jewish National Home reconstituted after 3000 years by and with the unanimous resolution of all 51 member states that comprised the League of Nations and endorsed the Mandate for Palestine.

Balad – the second party included in the Joint List and now in partnership with Gantz – had former MK Said Nafaamong its ranks.Nafa was convicted of maintaining contact with a foreign intelligence
operative and spent time in prison.

Another former Balad Knesset member, Basel Ghattas, was convicted of smuggling cell phones to Palestinian prisoners in an Israeli jail, an offence for which he too was convicted and imprisoned.

Spokesperson for the Joint list is Ayman Odeh – the head of Hadash, the third party in Joint List.

Odeh stated on 5 March 2020: 

“Right now, with Gantz’s attitude [in favor] of a Jewish majority and unilateral annexation, we have no one to recommend to the president. If there is a change after the elections in the direction of peace and equality, we will weigh our position again.” 

Gantz has apparently capitulatedto Odeh’s demands just 11 days later.Vice President of the fourth party inthe Joint List – Mansour Abbas  – has declared: 

“Of course, we are against the Zionist movement. However, from a pragmatic perspective, we are ready for a compromise between the Zionist movement and Palestinians” 

A Netanyahu-Gantz-Liberman Government of National Unity comprising 105 Knesset members was indicated by the election results – Netanyahu’s Likud party having secured 238,882 extra votes and 4 extra seats whilst Gantz’s Blue and White Party only secured 69,167 extra votes and no extra seats.

Instead, Gantz and his Blue and White colleagues Moshe Ya’alon and Yair Lapid – together with Yisrael Beitenu leader Avigdor Liberman – have jumped into bed with the Joint List to realize their common objective: all hate Netanyahu for a variety of personal reasons and want to see his political career ended.

Odeh had called for Gantz to form aminority Government with support of the Joint List in October 2019 – saying that even if it would quickly fall, such a “courageous” move would be worth it for thesingle purpose of ousting Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister.

Gantz has now taken the bait – to his eternal shame, Israel now faces six weeks of political chaos and confusion as Gantz and his 45 Netanyahu-hating coalition partners cosy up to and embrace15 Joint List Knesset members who revile them, Netanyahu and the Jewish State.

Author’s note: The cartoon – commissioned exclusively for this article—is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”  – one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators –whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

David Singer: Three Politicians Can Make 3000-Years-Old Jewish Dream a Reality

Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:

The votes are in – and it seems Israel’s Prime Minister – Bibi Netanyahu – is just three politicians shy of realising the 3000-years old dream of the Jewish People to regain sovereignty in Judea and Samaria – its ancient and biblical heartland.

The opportunity to turn this dream into a miraculous reality came with the release of President Trump’s Peace Plan on 28 January – embraced by Netanyahu but rejected by the Israeli Arabs, the PLO and the Arab League.

America and Israel’s response was to set up a joint six-member Sovereignty Mapping Committee to determine where Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria could be extended immediately. The residue – about 40% of Judea and Samaria where about 95% of the Arab population live – would continue to enjoy its current status quo – mainly under total PLO administration and security control.
Judea and Samaria formed part of the territory in which the Jewish National Home could be reconstituted following:

• the San Remo Conference and Treaty of Sevres in 1920 and
• all 51 member states of the League of Nations endorsing the Mandate for Palestine in 1922.

These rights vested in the Jewish people were preserved under article 80 of the United Nations Charter when the League of Nations was wound up on 20 April 1946.
Netanyahu’s main rival in Israel’s election held on 2 March – Benny Gantz – accepted the Trump Peace Plan but made it clear he would only implement it with the agreement of the Arab States and the international community. Given the rejection of the Plan by the Arabs and the European Union – Gantz’s promise was simply hot air that never had any chance of being implemented.
This latest election was the first in Israel’s history that had presented the electors with the opportunity to vote on the Jewish people regaining sovereignty in Judea and Samaria after an absence of 3000 years.
The battle lines were drawn – Netanyahu would do so immediately. Gantz would do so maybe, perhaps, possibly – but not certainly for sure – in the future.

The results were staggering:

• Likud converted a deficit of 37597 votes as against Blue and White in September 2019 into an amazing surplus of 132071votes in March 2020 – clear evidence that the voters wanted sovereignty in Judea and Samaria now.
• The turnout was impressive: 4615124 voters this time against 4340253 in September 2019.

Yet Netanyahu only managed to secure 58 of the 61 seats needed to turn this 3000 years-old dream of the Jewish people into a reality.

Netanyahu’s ability to find the support of another 3 of his 47 Jewish political opponents is complicated by the fact that he has been indicted by the Attorney-General in three cases alleging fraud and corruption and is due to appear in court on 17 March.

Four of Netanyahu’s 47 political opponents reportedly could switch their allegiance to Netanyahu to enable him to make this dream a reality.

Given this once in 3000 years opportunity of restoring Jewish rights in Judea and Samaria – it would be strange if many more of the remaining 43 politicians – including Liberman’s 6 Yisrael Beiteinu bloc – were not prepared to put the national interest of the Jewish People before their personal hatred of Netanyahu.

Restoring sovereignty would also fittingly complete the political process begun 100 years ago at San Remo in April 1920.

Netanyahu should not be written off just yet.

A fourth election beckons if Netanyahu fails.

The Jewish People’s long-held dream – if unrealized – could then turn into a debilitating nightmare – resulting in unprecedented political upheaval, civilian demonstrations and unrest.

Author’s note: The cartoon – commissioned exclusively for this article—is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators –  whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog.

David Singer: Israel’s Next Election Must Focus on Judea and Samaria – not Bibi

Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:

Israel’s next election due on 2 March 2020 must focus on the future of Judea and Samaria – not the future of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Bibi).

A window of opportunity has been granted to allow Israel to extend its sovereignty into Judea and Samaria following US Secretary of State Pompeo’s statement on 19 November 2019: 

“Turning now to Israel, the Trump administration is reversing the Obama administration’s approach towards Israeli settlements.

US public statements on settlement activities in the West Bank have been inconsistent over decades. In 1978, the Carter administration categorically concluded that Israel’s establishment of civilian settlements was inconsistent with international law. However, in 1981, President Reagan disagreed with that conclusion and stated that he didn’t believe that the settlements were inherently illegal.

Subsequent administrations recognized that unrestrained settlement activity could be an obstacle to peace, but they wisely and prudently recognized that dwelling on legal positions didn’t advance peace. However, in December 2016, at the very end of the previous administration, Secretary Kerry changed decades of this careful, bipartisan approach by publicly reaffirming the supposed illegality of settlements.

After carefully studying all sides of the legal debate, this administration agrees with President Reagan. The establishment of Israeli civilian settlements in the West Bank is not per se inconsistent with international law.”

The United Nations General Assembly will object to any such unilateral extension of Israel’s sovereignty. However it will unequivocally delineate the minimum area in Judea and Samaria which Israel will be claiming in any future negotiations with Arab interlocutors to end the 100 years old Arab-Jewish conflict.

For these outcomes to occur – all political parties contesting Israel’s next election need to bring before the electorate their respective parties detailed proposals on the extension of Israeli sovereignty into:

· the whole,

· part or

· none

of Judea and Samaria – accompanied by a map designating the areas in which Israeli sovereignty will be extended if they form part of Israel’s next Government.

For far too long Israelis have been at loggerheads with each other as to the extension of Israeli sovereignty into Judea and Samaria. The opportunity to resolve this political logjam during Donald Trump’s Presidency must not be lost.

Should another election deadlock occur for the third time in twelve months – the proposals presented by the respective parties for Judea and Samaria can be the basis for negotiations to form a Government of National Unity.

There will be critics who claim that Israel should not reveal its cards before negotiations actually begin with Arab interlocutors – that by doing so Israel will stymie itself from demanding more of Judea and Samaria.

All proposals should therefore include a rider that the area proposed is the minimum area of Judea and Samaria willing to be accepted in future negotiations and may be increased should changed circumstances to those now prevailing exist when negotiations are undertaken.

Political parties not prepared to inform voters of their proposals can expect to be given the thumbs down by the Israeli electorate. Those who are open and frank in presenting their proposals should find themselves rewarded by the electorate.

Politicians need to resist the temptation to focus their major attention on preventing Bibi  – Israel’s longest serving Prime Minister – from becoming Israel’s next Prime Minister as he personally grapples with three indictments laid against him by Attorney General Mandelblit.

Israel’s national interest must incontrovertibly prevail.

Crunch time for Judea and Samaria has arrived  – 100 years after reconstitution of the Jewish National Home in Palestine was first proposed internationally at the 1920 San Remo Conference.

Realising that 100 year old dream should be Israel’s paramount objective.

Author’s note: The cartoon – commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators – whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog.

David Singer: Israel Now Needs Miracle to Set Secure and Recognized Boundaries

Internet troubles due to the installment  of the Land of Oz's National Broadband Network forced me to cool my heels for a week.  But now, with no further ado, here is the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:

History will not kindly recall Israel’s power-hungry politicians who have forced a third election within twelve months on Israeli voters at a direct cost of another US$135 million.

The politicians’ inability to form a Government of National Unity is derelict – especially after Israel’s President Reuven Rivlin entreated them to do so.

The Jewish calendar is replete with both happy and sad times in the history of the Jewish people spanning thousands of years – faithfully remembered on each anniversary.

The period between 18 November 2019 and 11 December 2019 – which I call The Time of Missed Opportunity – could qualify for inclusion in that calendar.

18 November marks the day US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared that the US did not regard Jewish settlement in Judea and Samaria (West Bank) as being inconsistent with international law.

11 December marks the last day a Government of National Unity could have been formed to finally set Israel’s secure and recognized boundaries under Security Council Resolution 242 – within which the Jewish people would reconstitute the Jewish National Home 100 years after the San Remo Convention laid the groundwork on 25 April 1920.

Israel and the Jewish World have been divided as to where those boundaries should be – particularly since Judea and Samaria (the disputed territories) were conquered by Israel in the 1967 Six-Day War enabling Jews to return and live there after having been expelled and driven out in 1948 by six invading Arab armies.

Israelis espouse views ranging from extending Israeli sovereignty to all the disputed territories to sovereignty over none. Compromise somewhere in between could have possibly been found with a Government of National Unity making consensus decisions acceptable to the overwhelming majority of Israel’s population.

Two deadlocked Israeli elections in April and September 2019 have exposed a very disturbing political rift among Israeli voters as Israel confronts its Arab neighbours who seek to destroy it – and its international enemies at the United Nations who seek to deny that Jews have any legal right to live in the disputed territories guaranteed by article 6 of the League of Nations Mandate for Palestine and article 80 of the United Nations Charter.

This Jewish divisiveness has a bitter parallel in Jewish history – the Bible recounting that on the succession of Solomon’s son, Rehoboam, around 930 BCE, the land of Israel split into two kingdoms: the Kingdom of Israel (including the cities of Nablus and Samaria) in the north and the Kingdom of Judah (containing Jerusalem) in the south. These kingdoms remained separate states for over two hundred years.

Yuval Diskin – Israel’s former internal security chief – warned in 2015 that this could happen again:

“The two-state solution is becoming true for the Jews: The State of Judea is being built de facto side by side with the State of Israel. These are two nations whose differences are eclipsing their commonalities, a condition that is growing irreversible.
The State of Judea has different standards, different approaches to democracy, and it has two justice systems, one for Jews (Israeli law) and the other for Palestinians (martial law). Whether we want it or not, these two justice systems have divergent measures to adjudicate identical offences”.

Israel’s politicians – in rejecting a Government of National Unity and opting for a third election – have not acted in the national interest. They have chosen to continue political division and pursue personal ambition to achieve political power – rather than seeking national unity.

A third deadlocked election is the miracle and opportunity Israel needs to enable a Government of National Unity to set Israel’s boundaries.

 Author’s note: The cartoon – commissioned exclusively for this article—is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators –  whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog.

David Singer: Trump, Netanyahu and Gantz Can End in 2020 What Began in 1920

Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:

Designating the territory for reconstitution of the Jewish National Home in Palestine – begun with the San Remo Convention and Treaty of Sevres in April and August 1920 respectively – could finally be completed 100 years later in 2020.

Achieving this long-overdue outcome will require Israel to forma Government of National Unity by 11 December 2019 – headed initially by Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister for a minimum term of six months  – enabling the new Parliament to ratify those areas of Judea and Samaria to which Israeli sovereignty will be extended as delineated by the Government.

This Unity Government should ideally hold at least 80 of the 120 seats in the Knesset so that there is an overwhelming majority of Israel’s elected politicians supporting any determinative decisions made by the Knesset in relation to Judea and Samaria.

Israel has been presented with this amazing opportunity following President Trump’s Secretary for State – Mike Pompeo – issuing this declaration on 19 November 2019:

“After carefully studying all sides of the legal debate, this administration agrees with President Reagan. The establishment of Israeli civilian settlements in the West Bank is not per se inconsistent with international law.”

Pompeo’s statement followed US Ambassador to Israel – David Friedman – stating on 8 June 2019:

“Under certain circumstances I think Israel has the right to retain some, but unlikely all, of the West Bank.”

Friedman had then cautioned:

“We really don’t have a view until we understand how much, on what terms, why does it make sense, why is it good for Israel, why is it good for the region, why does it not create more problems than it solves.These are all things that we’d want to understand, and I don’t want to prejudge.”

Friedman  will get the  answers with the formation of Israel’s Government of National Unity – which hangs delicately by a thread and can vanish into thin air if it does not gain some oxygen by midnight on 11 December.

Fresh  elections  on  3  March 2020  – for  the  third time  in  a year – will then become mandatory and this wonderful opportunity will have flown out the window.

It would be a national disgrace and betrayal of Israelis and Jews worldwide if Israel’s political parties allowed their political differences and personal rivalries  to stymie the opportunity to determine the area within which the reconstitution of the Jewish National Home will be mandated after 100 years of fighting many wars and diplomatic battles.

Israel’s extended boundaries would be determined in coordination with President Trump and ratified over the next six months.

The fact that no Arab interlocutors will participate in any such decision-making process is regrettable.

However continuing Arab intransigence in refusing to commit to negotiate with Israel on Trump’s still unreleased deal  of  the  century – despite Trump’s best efforts to involve their participation in such decision-making with Israel – leaves Trump with no other option.

A Unity Government could be  reasonably  expected to agree to  extend Israel’s sovereignty  to  about 75% of Area C – about 45% of Judea and Samaria.

Gantz reportedly told close associates he is: 

“ready to make tough decisions in the coming days”.

 Hopefully Gantz as Deputy Prime Minister can rise to the occasion and allow Netanyahu – enjoying a unique  relationship  with  Trump – to  head  a  Government  of  National  Unity  to  grab  this once in  a hundred years opportunity.

An unprecedented – almost miraculous -confluence of events has emerged since Israel’s second-deadlocked September elections – that cries out for a national consensus and historic response by Trump, Netanyahu and Gantz.

Seize the moment – seize the day....

Author’s note:The cartoon – commissioned exclusively for this article—is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”-one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators – whose cartoons have graced the columns  of  Israeli  and  international  media  publications  for  decades.  His  cartoons  can  be  viewed at Drybonesblog.

David Singer: Release of Trump Deal Could Break Israel Elections Deadlock

Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:

The release of President Trump’s long-awaited and eagerly-anticipated deal of the century could be just the catalyst required to persuade Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu bloc of 8 members to join Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s bloc of 55 members to form Israel’s next Government.

Trump has previously announced that he would not present his plan to resolve the Arab-Jewish conflict until a new Israeli government was formed – but Trump’s position could be dramatically altered as the current political uncertainty in Israel seems to be leading to a third election being called within the space of 12 months.

New Right chairwoman Ayelet Shaked has been trying in the past week – unsuccessfully so far – to create a situation that would bring Liberman’s bloc and Netanyahu’s bloc together to enable a new government to be sworn in.

Shaked has reportedly met with Liberman. Afterwards, she also met with United Torah Judaism chairman Yaakov Litz man and Degel Hatorah chairman Moshe Gafni.

These meetings focused on a compromise on issues of religion and state – and especially the Draft Lawrequiring ultra-orthodox youth to do military service – which would allow the parties to sit together in government – as was the case throughout much of the term of the last elected Government.

Both sides reportedly were willing to listen but found it too difficult to compromise. Liberman's side is interested in recording an achievement on the Draft Law – while the ultra-orthodox seek to prevent the law from becoming too sharply-worded.

President Trump must be champing at the bit at the continuing failure of the major political parties in Israel – Likud and Blue and White – to form a Government of National Unity – that would have heralded the release of Trump’s peace proposals in September.

Trump would be equally confused by the fact that the Netanyahu and Liberman blocs have been unable to coalesce into Israel’s next Government  – despite the fact that they garnered 2,238,400 votes against the centrist and left parties who could only manage to get 1,556,491 votes.

There are five compelling reasons for Trump to release his peace proposals within the next month – rather than wait for another Israeli election to be held in March or April 2020:

• Trump could be involved in fighting impeachment proceedings in the Senate next year asthe House Intelligence Committee controlled by the Democrats continues its campaign against him.

• Trump will be in full election mode in March/April as he seeks re-election as President in November 2020

• Trump needs as much time as he can possibly get to promote, fully explain and expand on his ideas aimed at convincing Jews and Arabs that it is time to bury the hatchet after 100 years of unending conflict. This could involve countless hours in meetings and negotiations with Arab and Israeli leaders.

• A third Israeli election could result in another deadlocked resultand indefinitely delay the release of Trump’s plans until after the 2020 US Presidential elections

• Trump’s plan would focus on the need for Israel to get its act together and form a properly constituted Government to deal with and negotiate on Trump’s proposals.

The priority of trying to reach an historic agreement with their Arab neighbours would surely supersede the domestic political wheeling and dealing that has so far marked Israel’s inability to fashion a Government.

Any attack on Israel by its enemies could be another shock to jolt Israel out of its current electoral complacency. The Israeli Government that would emerge could be either a National Unity Government or a Netanyahu–Liberman Government.

Either would be preferable to the current standoff and political uncertainty.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article —is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones” —  one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

David Singer: Rabin’s Policies Can Help Break Gantz-Netanyahu Deadlock

Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:

The prospect of a third election in Israel within twelve months looms large – should Blue and White leader Benny Gantz be unable to form a Government of National Unity within the next two weeks.

To break the current deadlock Gantz needs at least nine members to defect from the voting bloc of 55 seats led by Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Gantz’s cause could be considerably advanced were he to publicly endorse the policies pursued by the late Prime Minister – Yitzchak Rabin – who was assassinated on 4 November 1995.

Rabin made his intentions very clear in his last speech to the Knesset on 5 October 1995 when presenting the 300 page “Israeli - Palestinian Interim Agreement on the West Bank and the Gaza Strip” (Oslo Accords) for approval: 

“Members of Knesset,

“We are striving for a permanent solution to the unending bloody conflict between us and the Palestinians and the Arab states." In the framework of the permanent solution, we aspire to reach, first and foremost, the State of Israel as a Jewish state, at least 80% of whose citizens will be, and are, Jews.

"At the same time, we also promise that the non-Jewish citizens of Israel – Muslim, Christian, Druze and others – will enjoy full personal, religious and civil rights, like those of any Israeli citizen. Judaism and racism are diametrically opposed.

"We view the permanent solution in the framework of State of Israel which will include most of the area of the Land of Israel as it was under the rule of the British Mandate, and alongside it a Palestinian entity which will be a home to most of the Palestinian residents living in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.

"We would like this to be an entity which is less than a state, and which will independently run the lives of the Palestinians under its authority. The borders of the State of Israel, during the permanent solution, will be beyond the lines which existed before the Six Day War. We will not return to the 4 June 1967 lines.

"And these are the main changes, not all of them, which we envision and want in the permanent solution:

 A. First and foremost, united Jerusalem, which will include both Ma'ale Adumim and Givat Ze'ev – as the capital of Israel, under Israeli sovereignty, while preserving the rights of the members of the other faiths, Christianity and Islam, to freedom of access and freedom of worship in their holy places, according to the customs of their faiths.

B. The security border of the State of Israel will be located in the Jordan Valley, in the broadest meaning of that term.

C. Changes which will include the addition of Gush Etzion, Efrat, Beitar and other communities, most of which are in the area east of what was the "Green Line," prior to the Six Day War.

D. The establishment of blocs of settlements in Judea and Samaria, like the one in Gush Katif.”

Rabin – then Defence Minister – had stated on May 27, 1985: 

“The Palestinians should have a sovereign State which includes most of the Palestinians. It should be Jordan with a considerable part of the West Bank and Gaza. East of the Jordan River there is enough room to settle the Palestinian refugees. One tiny State between Israel and Jordan will solve nothing. It will be a time bomb.”

Supporting Rabin’s policies would stand Gantz in good stead as he seeks to form a Government of National Unity and – failing that – in any upcoming election that would hopefully end Israel’s current precarious political situation.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones” — one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog.

David Singer: Vote Recount Could Possibly End Israel’s Electoral Morass

Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:

Israel’s President Rivlin is due to make a decision on October 24 on whether to extend for another 14 days the mandate he granted to Benjamin Netanyahu to form Israel’s next Government.

Reports that Rivlin will not give Netanyahu that 14 days extension – even if requested by Netanyahu – seems counterproductive to doing everything possible to avoid a third election within 12 months.

The President should also take advantage of that 14 day period to order a recount of votes to answer a query that the September election results have thrown up – which is encapsulated in this email I sent to the Central Elections Committee on 29 September:

“I would be pleased if you could give me an explanation to my following comment relating to the final count in the September 2019 elections:

•  There was an increase of 127,536 in the number of eligible votes cast from 4,309,270 in April 2019 to 4,436,806 in September. Yet there was an increase of 133,103 alone just in the Joint List vote (470211) over the Hadash-Tal and Ram-Balad vote (337108) in April.

Thank you for helping me to understand how this could occur.”

The April election results were mired in confusion due to a bug in the Central Elections Committee website.  The displayed data indicated for several hours that the New Right party was just above the threshold with 3.26%, but officials said that was a mistake.

The officials said the bug on the site meant that it was not showing accurate numbers for total votes counted, and was thus displaying inaccurate figures for all parties. This was rectified.

Could this same mistake have happened again in September and not have been rectified?

I have not yet received a reply to my request.

The distribution of Knesset seats is very complicated and the summary issued by the Central Committee needs to be amplified and explained.

Allowing Netanyahu another 14 days would, therefore, seem to be in the national interest from everyone’s standpoint – especially if Netanyahu requests it. 

Calling on Blue and White leader Benny Gantz to try and form a Government can wait another 14 days – given that Netanyahu’s bloc has a clear electoral majority over the Ganz bloc – 1,973,246 votes to 1,556,491 votes.

President Trump – like bemused Israeli voters – is frustrated by an electoral system that has failed to produce a new Government following elections in April and September.

After April’s fiasco – Trump opined:

“Well, it’s too bad what happened in Israel. It looked like a total win for Netanyahu, who’s a great guy, he’s a great guy,” said the president. “And now they’re back… in the election stage. That is too bad. Because they don’t need this. I mean they’ve got enough turmoil over there, it’s a tough place.”

That turmoil continued in September and could be repeated following any third election.

Trump’s deal of the century – years in the making and designed to end the 100 years Jewish-Arab conflict – will not be released until a new Israeli Government has been formed. 

Liberman’s failure to sign up his 8 seats with the 55 seats aligned with Netanyahu continues to confound the democratic electoral process – when a party not securing a majority of seats in its own right can usually form a Government with a small party’s support – in return for granting that small party some of its political demands. 

A full recount of the votes cast in the September 17 elections – if still legally available – could be just the miracle Israel needs to get out of its current predicament.

Clutching at straws maybe – but certainly well worth pursuing.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones” — one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

David Singer: Rivlin Must Cook Up a US$220 Million Netanyahu-Liberman Omelette

Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:

An opening to ending Israel’s election deadlock has come after Yisrael Beiteinu faction chairman Oded Forer sent a formal letter to the head of the Likud’s coalition negotiating team, Yariv Levin, on 11 October, asking for negotiations on the policy guidelines for the next government.

Israel’s President Reuven Rivlin should exploit this opening to try and save Israel going to a third election in twelve months - by summoning Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Yisrael Beitienu head Avigdor Liberman to the President’s residence for negotiations on forming a Netanyahu-Liberman coalition Government.

Rivlin’s attempt to get Netanyahu and Blue and White leader Benny Gantz to form a Government of National Unity failed quite spectacularly and in a very short time.

Rivlin’s failure was quickly followed by:

· Netanyahu and Gantz failing to reach any agreement in further negotiations

· Netanyahu and Liberman holding a meeting for only one hour that reportedly went nowhere

· Netanyahu and Gantz both rejecting a proposal by Liberman very shortly after he proposed it. A third election at an estimated cost of US$220 million – and the possibility it could also end in deadlock – constitutes political suicide.

President Rivlin would be shirking his responsibility as President if he allowed a third election to take place without having made this last ditch attempt to stop Israel’s descent into another bout of electoral madness.

The best prospects of forming a new Government involve a coalition between the Right Wing parties holding 55 votes and Yisrael Beiteinu holding 8 votes – enough to create the 61 votes needed to form Government for the next four years.

Avoiding a third election has increased exponentially following these recent international developments that have occurred since Israel’s second indecisive election on 17 September:

· Turkey’s invasion of northern Syria

· The Kurds in Syria becoming exposed to being massacred by the invading Turkish forces

· The Kurds in Turkey being caught up in any ensuing conflict

· President Trump showing no inclination to intervene to prevent the Turkish invasion of northern Syria

· The explosion of an Iranian state oil company tanker near the Saudi port city of Jeddah,

· President Trump ordering 3000 troops and weapons to Saudi Arabia in a message of deterrence to Iran

· The further postponement of the release of President Trump’s deal of the century

· The Democrats headlong rush to impeach President Trump

Any deterioration in these potentially disastrous situations could have serious implications for Israel’s safety and security. Israel must have a government in place ready to deal with their consequences.

Liberman's conditions for joining a Netanyahu-led government containing ultra-orthodox religious parties have been publicly announced by Liberman.

Israeli voters have clearly expressed their preference for a right wing coalition Government led by Netanyahu – 1,973,246 votes – over a left wing coalition Government led by Gantz – 1,556,491 votes.

Rivlin – armed with Forer’s letter to Levin and Israeli voters clearly-expressed wishes – has been given sufficient justification to get Netanyahu and Liberman – for whom 310154 Israelis voted – to sit down and negotiate Liberman’s list of demands for forming a new Netanyahu-Liberman Government before Netanyahu’s mandate to do so expires on 24 October.

Neither Netanyahu nor Liberman should have any expectation that they are going to emerge from the President’s residence with a complete victory for the positions they might initially take when they first sit down with the President.

Rivlin’s prestige and canny political skills could just get them to an agreed compromise.

Rivlin will have earned three stars from the Michelin Guide – and the gratitude of Israeli voters – if he succeeds in cooking-up a Netanyahu-Liberman omelette using a recipe whose ingredients are acceptable to both of them.

Netanyahu and Liberman Must Stop Israel's Third Election This Year

Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:

Prime Minister Netanyahu and Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Liberman have finally met – albeit for just one hour – to discuss the possibility of the 63 votes they controlbeing converted into Israel’s next Government.

It is hard to believe that having made that long-awaited breakthrough – they would be so foolish and obstinate to refuse to compromise their differences to prevent the Israeli electorate going through a third election within twelve months

The direct cost to the Israeli government for new elections, including a budget for the central elections committee and state funding for parties running in the elections, is estimated at NIS 800 million ($220 million).

The greatest loss, however, arises due to the fact that election day is an official vacation day in Israel. The country’s daily GDP is approximately NIS 5 billion ($1.4 billion). Accordingto conservative estimates, election day represents a loss to the Israeli economy of some NIS 1.5 billion ($410 million).

Liberman has publicly laid out his demands for joining the Right-Wing bloc headed by Netanyahu:

• Passage of the ultra-orthodoxmilitary service law, as drafted byLiberman;•civil marriage; [permitting] conversions by local rabbis;

• re-approving egalitarian prayer at the Western Wall;•requiring ultra-orthodox schools to teach secular subjects•public transportation and the opening of mini-marketson the Sabbath.

 These two issues would be left up to local authorities in every municipality, based on who lives in any given town.

 Liberman warned:  

“We won’t accept anything less than this, even if it means sitting in the opposition.”

 Crunch time has arrived.

Liberman has to adopt a more flexible approach and accept less than the ”all or nothing “ stance he has adopted. Netanyahu is now in a much stronger position politically to accept Liberman’s major demand for passage of Liberman’s ultra-orthodox military service draft law – which was the deal-breaker in April.

Liberman voters increased by136684 in September whilst religious parties only increased their votes by 91188 and Likud’s vote decreased by 28835.

Civil marriage and conversions by local rabbis is a curly problem that could be sent to a Committee to consider and come up with recommendations.

Re-approving the Western Wall arrangements should be a formality.

Teaching secular subjects in ultra-orthodox schools could begin with pilot projects in specified schools in particular areas where the ultra-orthodox community do not constitute the majority of the population – perhaps with majority parental approval.

Liberman’s proposals for transport and mini markets on Shabbat happen in many areas now.

There is a pathway t oagreement on these issues that can be achieved with goodwill and a readiness to compromise in recognition of a greater objective – sparing the Israeli electorate anothe relection and the possibility that another deadlock could result.

Israel is surrounded by enemies–especially Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon and  Syria and Hamas in Gaza that could be tempted to exploit the fractured nature of Israel’s current political circumstances.

There are pressing political issues awaiting Israel’s next Government –most notably negotiations on President Trump’s deal of the century and Netanyahu’s election promise to annex large parts of the West Bank.

Ending this state of suspended uncertainty has now been thrust on the shoulders of Netanyahu and Liberman – following the failure of Netanyahu and Blue and White leader Benny Gantz to achieve a deal they could both live with.

Netanyahu and Liberman would do well to heed the sage advice contained in the Ethics of the Fathers: 

“Do not seek greatness for yourself, and do not lust for honor” 

Achieving greatness and honor togetherby compromising their political expectations will secure Netanyahu and Liberman a special place in the annals of Israel.

Author’s  note:  The  cartoon—commissioned  exclusively  for  this  article—is  by  Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones” —one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators—whosecartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

David Singer: Netanyahu and Liberman Could Cut Deal if Rivlin Plan Fails

Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:

 President Rivlin’s decision to bring Bibi Netanyahu and Benny Gantz together to see if a Government of National Unity can be formed makes sense in the extraordinary situation that has followed Israel’s elections on 17 September.

Once again neither the Left nor Right wing blocs have won the 61 seats required to form Government.

Rivlin’s proposal however could well founder on the aspirations of Netanyahu, Gantz and Yair Lapid to be the Prime Minister of any such Government and whether that position should be rotated and in what order. During the April 2019 election campaign – Gantz and Lapid ran under a rotation agreement that would have seen Gantz serve as prime minister for the first two years and eight months whilst Lapid took over for the remainder of the term.

Their agreement was key to the merger of Gantz’s Israel Resilience Party with Lapid’s Yesh Atid Party to form the Blue and White Party. In June 2019 Gantz and Lapid pledged they would keep their deal to rotate the premiership if they formed the next government after the September elections.

Now – after those inconclusive elections – Lapid has made this call at a Blue and White faction meeting:

"One person is preventing the formation of a liberal unity government. One person. When faced with the choice between what’s important for the country and what’s important for one person, the country comes first."

Lapid was obviously referring to Netanyahu.

Is Lapid prepared – in the same spirit – to give up his entitlement to be Prime Minister to enable Gantz and Netanyahu to thrash out an agreement?

After that major problem is settled – agreement on policies and infighting for positions in that Government would be fraught with personal rivalries and ambitions.

Paradoxically the election results have broken the April-deadlock that prevented Netanyahu and Liberman forming a Government with Netanyahu as its Prime Minister. The same problems of allocating portfolios in their 63 member coalition would remain – but would be far easier than dealing with 99 members in a coalition of National Unity. Bridging the Netanyahu-Lieberman antipathy divide wouldn’t be easy either.

Liberman’s party did not form Government with 60 other members of the Right last April after Netanyahu refused to accept a bill drafted by Liberman calling for ultra-orthodox Jews to do military service.  Netanyahu was captive to the ultra-orthodox Jews comprised in the Right bloc who threatened to bolt if he wavered. Liberman’s continuing insistence that his military service bill be legislated was countered by United Torah Judaism MK Yakov Asher declaring this the best possible get-out-the-vote campaign the religious parties could wish for.

The religious parties failed big time.

Netanyahu is now in an easier political position to agree to Liberman’s demand than he was in April  – the latest voting results showing:

1. Liberman’s vote increased from 173004 to 309688 – an increase of 136684.

2. The combined votes of the religious parties – Shas and United Torah Judaism – increased from 507324 to 598522 – an increase of only 91198.

3. Likud’s vote decreased from 1140370 to 1111535 – a drop of 28835

The turnout of ultra-orthodox voters opposing Liberman’s bill did not match the turnout of new voters supporting Liberman’s bill and those Likud voters changing their votes for possibly the same reason. The religious parties are now on far weaker ground to oppose Liberman’s reform as they are locked in to a single negotiating bloc containing 55 members - presumably acting by majority vote.

Cutting a deal between Netanyahu and Liberman remains an option to prevent Israel going through this electoral agony for a third time if Rivlin’s call fails.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones” —  one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

David Singer: Netanyahu and Trump Hatch Plan for a Jordan Exclave in West Bank

Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s last-minute election pledge to apply Israeli sovereignty in parts of the West Bank could possibly see a large part of the remainder of the West Bank being offered to Jordan as an exclave in direct negotiations between Jordan and Israel.

An exclave is a piece of land that is politically attached to a larger piece but not physically conterminous (having the same borders) with it because of surrounding foreign territory.
Netanyahu’s pledge was clear:

“We will apply sovereignty in the Jordan Valley and the Northern Dead Sea as soon as the next government is established in the next Knesset.  Today I have appointed a working team led by the director-general of my ministry, Ronen Peretz, to formulate an outline for applying sovereignty to the Jordan Valley and the northern Dead Sea”

Netanyahu has now gone even further reportedly saying that if re-elected he plans to annex additional “vital” parts of the West Bank in coordination with the United States.
Trump’s Ambassador in Israel, David Friedman, has already indicated that Trump’s plan will not call for the creation of an additional Arab state between Israel and Jordan based on the 1949 ceasefire lines agreed between those two former enemies.

Friedman declared:

“Under certain circumstances, I think Israel has the right to retain some, but unlikely all, of the West Bank.”

Friedman then declined to say how the United States would respond if Netanyahu moved to annex West Bank land unilaterally – stating:

“We really don’t have a view until we understand how much, on what terms, why does it make sense, why is it good for Israel, why is it good for the region, why does it not create more problems than it solves. These are all things that we’d want to understand, and I don’t want to prejudge.”

Trump seemingly has not yet secured an ironclad guarantee from Jordan or any other Arab interlocutor that they stand ready to negotiate with Israel on Trump’s plan. Releasing it without such a guarantee would constitute political suicide for Trump.

Netanyahu’s pledges provide sufficient justification for Trump to further postpone his deal’s release.
One can visualise Trump’s advisers carefully scrutinising Netanyahu’s final map – or any map drawn up by a non-Netanyahu led Government – prior to Trump releasing his deal – to see if common agreement can first be reached on Israel’s demands – and then advancing to the next stage to see if agreement between Trump and Netanyahu – or Israel’s new Prime Minister – can be reached on what should happen in the remainder of the West Bank.

It would then make sense for Trump’s plan to be released only after concluding these discussions.
Trump will not be proposing the creation of any new Jew-free State in all of the West Bank for the first time in recorded history – whilst the PLO has rejected negotiating on Trump’s deal if it does not meet these core demands articulated by Abbas and the PLO.

Two solutions therefore emerge for resolving sovereignty in the remainderof the West Bankterritorythat will notcome under Israeli sovereignty:

• Israel unilaterally annexes that territory including its existing Arab population
• Israel and Jordan create a Jordan exclave within that territory as may be agreed in direct negotiations.

A Jordan exclave would materially help end the 100-years-old Arab-Jewish conflict.
Details such as the demilitarization of the exclave and who controls access into and egress from the exclave would be negotiated.

Trump is the driving force to bring Israel and Jordan together to enable these negotiations to be successfully concluded.

 Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones” —  one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

David Singer: Trump Seems Set to See Netanyahu as Israel’s Next Prime Minister

Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:

President Trump seems set to see Bibi Netanyahu re-elected as Israel’s next prime minister in the upcoming elections to be held on 17 September – the second this year following an indecisive vote in April that left no one able to form government.

Early voting by eligible Israeli diplomats and emissaries around the world has seen a drop in their turnout from 76 per cent in April to 69 per cent in September.

If general voters follow the diplomats’ lead next week:

1. The voter turnout of 67.97 per cent in April 2019 will be further reduced.
2. Netanyahu’s Likud party will increase its proportion of the vote – 26.46 per cent in April 2019 – up from 23.4 per cent in 2015 – to an even higher figure.

Likud increased its numbers from 985,408 in 2015 to 1,140,370 in April 2019 – whilst Yisrael Beiteinu’s numbers decreased from 214,906 in 2015 to 173,004 in April 2019. Blue and White contested the April elections for the first time.

Likud voters – buoyed by the post-April statements detailed in 1, 2 and 3 below – will most likely vote again – whilst Blue and White and Yisrael Beiteinu voters – unhappy with their leaders’ post-April statements detailed in 4 and 5 below – are more likely to stay home.

Any increase in general voter turnout this time beyond 67.97 per cent would defy the diplomatic downturn – but should still see parties on the Right securing more of those new votes than parties on the Left. Statements made since April by Trump’s Ambassador to Israel David Friedman, President Trump himself, Likud’s Netanyahu, Yisrael Beiteinu’s Lieberman and Blue and White’s Gantz support this conclusion.

      1. Ambassador Friedman indicated that some degree of annexation of the West Bank would be legitimate.

 “Under certain circumstances, I think Israel has the right to retain some, but unlikely all, of the West Bank”

More new voters – conscious of their own families’ personal safety – would vote Right – than those opposing any annexation – who would vote Left.

2. Trump endorsed Netanyahu as “a great guy”
3. Netanyahu – speaking in Elkana – located in Samaria – pledged:

“With God’s help we will extend Jewish sovereignty to all the settlements as part of the (biblical) Land of Israel, as part of the State of Israel. “This is our land…”We will build another Elkana and another Elkana and another Elkana. We will not uproot anyone here”

In a first-ever public address from Hebron by a sitting Israeli prime minister – Netanyahu vowed:

“To cite the late Menachem Begin and the late Yigal Allon: ‘Hebron will not be devoid of Jews.’ It will not be Judenrein [ed: i.e. Jew-free]. And I say on the 90th anniversary of the disturbances [ed: when 67 Jews were murdered] – we are not foreigners in Hebron, we will stay here forever.” 

These patriotic declarations should attract more Right-supportive than Left-opposing new voters.

4. Lieberman promised to amend the law to make ultra-orthodox youths do compulsory military training.

United Torah Judaism MK Yakov Asher has declared this the best possible get-out-the-vote campaign the ultra-Orthodox parties could wish for.

New ultra-orthodox voters turning out to spare children in their ultra-orthodox community undertaking this military obligation would likely exceed new secular voters who think this is a reform long overdue.

5. Trump’s judgment has been challenged by Gantz stating he would have admitted US Congresswomen Omar and Tlaib into Israel.

Gantz’s decision would not resonate with a majority of new voters – who would consider any disagreement with Trump could jeopardise Trump’s amazing support of Israel during his presidency.

Trump and Netanyahu appear destined to continue their very special relationship after the votes have been counted.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones” — one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

David Singer: Netanyahu will be Israel’s next Prime Minister – with Trump’s help

Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:

The abrupt termination of Israel’s 21st Parliament with new elections being called for 17 September has seen the New York Times claiming that Israel has been plunged into unprecedented political chaos.

A more sober assessment – based on comparing Israel’s 2015 election results with the April 2019 results – provides a different picture – in which Prime Minister Netanyahu will be returned once again as Israel’s next Prime Minister.

In an earlier article written in March, I opined:

“The cards have certainly been stacked against Benjamin Netanyahu being Israel’s next Prime Minister after three recent major developments — but he is by no means down and out.”

Those developments were:

1. Israeli Attorney-General Avichai Mandelblit’s decision to pursue Netanyahu for alleged criminal offences.
2. Three political parties coalescing into the Blue and White Party — promising that two of the three previous leaders — former Chief of Staff Benny Gantz and Yesh Atid’s Yair Lapid — would each be Prime Minister for half of the next Government’s term of office.
3. Netanyahu’s role in precipitating a marriage of convenience between Jewish Home, National Union and an extreme right-wing party Otzma Yehudit with alleged links to the assassinated Rabbi Meir Kahane’s banned political party Kach

I pointed out then that:

“The 2015 election results provide a useful guide as to the likely impact these three developments might have on Netanyahu’s chances:

• the Likud Party only received 23.4% of the vote—hardly a ringing endorsement for Netanyahu and
• 72% of those eligible voted—very high when compared to America’s 58.1%.

Likud’s low supporter-base seems unlikely to desert Netanyahu.
Voter turnout would have to increase dramatically or huge swings away from other right-wing parties would be needed to give Blue and White the nod needed to be invited by President Rivlin to form a coalition Government ahead of Netanyahu.
The unknown elephants in the room are the number of terrorist attacks and international political developments affecting Israel in the next five weeks that will concentrate voters’ minds — when actually casting their votes – on who can best safeguard their personal safety and Israel’s security.
Netanyahu is certainly not out of the race”.

Netanyahu won that race – the April 2019 election results revealing:

1. Voter turnout went down from 72% to 68%
2. Netanyahu’s Likud party vote went up from 23.4% to 26.46%
3. The party forcing the fresh September elections by refusing to join a Likud-led coalition – Yisrael Beiteinu headed by Avigdor Liberman – saw its vote reduced from 214906 to 173004

These results should become more pronounced after voters evaluate the outcome of the Conference to be co-hosted by President Trump and Bahrein in Manama on 25/26 June to be attended by Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Qatar – with Egypt, Jordan and Israel (represented by Netanyahu’s caretaker Government) and other regional Arab states expected to also attend.
The US State Department has confirmed the Conference will go ahead notwithstanding Israel’s snap elections in September.
Add to this the likely possibility that before the September elections:

• Trump could recognise Israel’s political claims to sovereignty in Judea and Samaria (West Bank) as he did in the Golan Heights prior to the April elections
• There could be further terror attacks against Israel from Gaza and the West Bank followed by swift Netanyahu-directed responses

Trump has already pronounced his feelings on Israel’s September elections:

“Bibi got elected. Now, all of a sudden, they’re going to have to go through the process again until September? That’s ridiculous.”

Netanyahu – based on the April 2019 election results and Trump’s anticipated pro-Israel decisions – is odds-on favourite to be Israel’s next Prime Minister.

(Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog)

David Singer: Netanyahu Could Still be Israel’s Next Prime Minister

Image: Sebastian Scheiner/AP

Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:  

The cards have certainly been stacked against Benjamin Netanyahu being Israel’s next prime minister after three recent major developments – but he is by no means down and out.
Those developments are:

1. Israeli Attorney-General Avichai Mandelblit’s decision to pursue Netanyahu for alleged criminal offences – explained by Elena Chachko as follows:

 “Mandelblit only announced that he isconsideringindicting Netanyahu. In other words, the announcement does not mean that Netanyahu would necessarily be indicted. This is not specific to Netanyahu’s case, but rather a feature of the Israeli justice system: Netanyahu, like most criminal defendants in Israel who face serious charges, will get a hearing before a final decision is made. Based on news reports and past precedents, the hearing will take place several months from now, after the April elections. This process is governed by the guidelines of the state attorney—the official subordinate to the attorney general who directs prosecutions—for notification and hearing in criminal proceedings.”

2. Three political parties coalescing into the Blue and White Part promising that two of the three previous leaders – former Chief of Staff Benny Gantz and Yesh Atid’s Yair Lapid – will each be prime minister for half of the next Government’s term of office.

3. Netanyahu’s role in precipitating a marriage of convenience between Jewish Home, National Union and an extreme right wing party Otzma Yehudit with alleged links to the assassinated Rabbi Meir Kahane’s banned political party Kach – which has caused consternation and anger in Israel, America and Australia.

It remains to be seen whether these three developments translate into Netanyahu not being Israel’s next prime minister.

Bret Stephens  – one of Netanyahu’s most trenchant critics – penned an op-ed article in the New York Times titled  “Netanyahu must go” in which even he grudgingly admits:

“As I noted last year, in matters of policy and execution, Netanyahu has been a remarkably effective prime minister. On his watch, Israel’s economy has thrived, its diplomatic horizons have widened, its borders have been defended and its enemies humiliated. Thanks to Donald Trump, whom he cultivated astutely and assiduously, he got his way on the Iran deal, brought the American Embassy to Jerusalem and pursued openings with the Arab world without making irreversible concessions to the Palestinians. Israel’s critics may like none of this, but from an Israeli standpoint they are considerable successes.”

Noted jurists Alan Dershowitz and Avi Bell – Professor of Law at Bar Ilan University and the University of San Diego –  have criticised Mandelblit’s decision.

President Trump and Vladimir Putin’s relationships with Netanyahu arenot enjoyed by any other candidates.

A spirited defence distinguishing Otzma Yehudit’s policies from those of the Kach Party has been made by Otzma candidate Itamar Ben Gvir.

The 2015 election results provide a useful guide as to the likely impact these three developments might have on Netanyahu’s chances:

• the Likud Party only received 23.4% of the vote – hardly a ringing endorsement for Netanyahu and

• 72% of those eligible voted – very high when compared to America’s 58.1%.

 Likud’s low supporter-base seems unlikely to desert Netanyahu.

Voter turnout would have to increase dramatically or huge swings away from other right-wing parties would be needed to give Blue and White the nod needed to be invited by President Rivlin to form a coalition Government ahead of Netanyahu.

The unknown elephants in the room are the number of terrorist attacks and international political developments affecting Israel in the next five weeks that will concentrate voters’minds – when actually casting their votes  – on who can best safeguard their personal safety and Israel’s security.

Netanyahu is certainly not out of the race.