David Singer: Israel, Jordan and Egypt Must Hop on Trump Bandwagon to Peace

Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:

President Trump has now delivered the missing piece in his plan to end the 100 years old Jewish-Arab conflict – providing the incentive necessary for Israel’s warring political parties to bury their hatchets and form a new Israeli Government within the next 21 days.

This unique opportunity for peace trumps the domestic differences that have prevented Israel’s political parties forming that new Government following the elections in April and September 2019.

Trump has been progressively signposting his roadmap for the last two years:

• Moving the American Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem

 • Declaring Jerusalem as the capital of Israel

• Closing down the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) Offices in Washington

 • Withdrawing American funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

• Giving a substantial aid package to Jordan

 • Recognising Israeli sovereignty in the Golan Heights

• Having Bahrain host the "Peace to Prosperity"workshop to discuss the economic part of Trump’s "deal of the century"

• Flagging Israel’s right to retain at least some  but – “unlikely all” – of the West Bank,.

 Now Trump has made the end goal of his “deal of the century” very clear with the following statement issued by Secretary of  State Mike Pompeo:

“Turning now to Israel, the Trump administration is reversing the Obama administration’s approach towards Israeli settlements.

US public statements on settlement activities in the West Bank have been inconsistent over decades. In 1978, the Carter administration categorically concluded that Israel’s establishment of civilian settlements was inconsistent with international law. However, in 1981, President Reagan disagreed with that conclusion and stated that he didn’t believe that the settlements were inherently illegal. 

Subsequent administrations recognized that unrestrained settlement activity could be an obstacle to peace, but they wisely and prudently recognized that dwelling on legal positions didn’t advance peace. However, in December 2016, at the very end of the previous administration, Secretary Kerry changed decades of this careful, bipartisan approach by publicly reaffirming the supposed illegality of settlements. 

After carefully studying all sides of the legal debate, this administration agrees with President Reagan. The establishment of Israeli civilian settlements in the West Bank is not per se inconsistent with international law.”

The right of Jews to live in Judea and Samaria (West Bank) for the purposes of reconstituting the Jewish National Home there has been enshrined in international law under article 6 of the 1922 Mandate for Palestine and article 80 of the 1945 United Nations Charter.

The United Nations, the European Union and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation have denied the legitimacy of these Jewish claims – emboldening the Arabs to claim 100% of these territories. Pompeo’s statement has quashed the Arabs’ claims.

One roadblock still remaining requires Trump to identify the Arab interlocutors prepared to stand up and negotiate with Israel on Trump’s plan. Pompeo has given the PLO one last opportunity to join the negotiations with Israel.

“The  United  States  encourages  the  Israelis  and  the  Palestinians  to  resolve  the  status  of Israeli settlements in the West Bank in any final status negotiations.”

The PLO had already unequivocally refused to negotiate on Trump’s plan – and will continue to do so.Trump should focus on Jordan and Egypt -the last two Arab States to have occupied Judea and Samaria (West Bank) and Gaza respectively between 1948 and 1967 – to fill the void.

Israel needs  a new  Government  within the  next  21  days  or  face  another  expensive  and debilitating election  in  March  2020 – just  as  Trump  is  bidding  for  re-election - when  he  might  consider  it inopportune to release his plan.

Israel, Jordan and Egypt must hop on the Trump bandwagon now.

Author’s note:The  cartoon — commissioned  exclusively  for this  article — is by  Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones” — one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the  columns of  Israeli and  international  media  publications for decades. His  cartoons can be  viewed at Drybonesblog

David Singer: United Nations, Egypt and Jordan Could Scuttle Trump’s Peace Plan

Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:

President Trump’s long-awaited peace plan to end the Arab-Jewish conflict – slated for release by the end of January 2019 – could be indefinitely shelved.

This possibility has emerged following the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) failing to pass an American-sponsored resolution A/73/L.42 (“Resolution”) – condemning Hamas and other militant organisations in Gaza for indiscriminate attacks on Israel’s civilian population.

Protecting all civilian populations from the ravages of conflict and war was turned on its head when the Resolution failed to attract a two-thirds majority vote demanded by UN Arab-member states – rather than a simple majority argued for by America which was lost by a narrow margin of three votes.

The Resolution had sought to condemn Hamas – whose Covenant calls for the destruction of Israel – for the first time since Hamas was created in 1987.

The Resolution served as a barometer to measure whether 134 of the 193 UN members comprising the Group of 77 would be prepared to support one pro-Israel humanitarian resolution being passed to break the cycle of over 700 UNGA anti-Israel resolutions their voting bloc had always guaranteed.

Only 35 possessed the moral integrity to break ranks and support the Resolution, 32 abstained and 15 did not vote.

Trump was publicly humiliated – and Hamas considerably boosted – when the Resolution only mustered 87 votes “for”to 57 “against”– 9 votes less than the 96 required for its successful carriage.
41 of the 57 dissenting votes were cast by Islamic States of whom only 6 – Azerbaijan, Egypt, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Senegal and Turkey – maintain diplomatic relations with Israel. Solidarity with the Islamic bloc took precedence over humanitarian concerns to protect Israel’s civilian population under daily attack.

The other 16 dissenters were:
Belarus, Bolivia, Botswana, China, Congo, Cuba, Lao, Mauritius, Namibia, Nicaragua, Russia, South Africa, Venezuela, Viet Nam, Zambia, Zimbabwe

Bolivia, Cuba and Venezuela do not have diplomatic relations with Israel. America would have reasonably expected support for the Resolution from some of the remaining 13.

Egypt and Jordan were the two Arab states Trump would have probably been focusing on to replace the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) in negotiations with Israel – after the PLO had made it clear on many occasions that it would not negotiate with Israel on Trump’s proposals under any circumstances.

Egypt and Jordan’s credentials as replacement negotiators were unique – being the last two Arab states to respectively occupy Gaza and Judea and Samaria (West Bank) between 1948 and 1967 – the specific territories that Trump’s plan will address and whose sovereignty still remains disputed between Arabs and Jews.

Egypt and Jordan’s dissenting votes are not what Trump would have anticipated from these two major recipients of America’s generous largesse.  Their readiness to risk losing substantial foreign aid and American protection rather than assist Trump in getting his Resolution adopted is bad news for Trump.  Without securing their prior agreement to negotiate with Israel – Trump’s plan seems destined to never see the light of day.

Other dissenting Arab states like Saudi Arabia and Oman also showed their preparedness to risk losing ongoing American support rather than white-ant the UN Islamic-voting bloc.
Trump’s United Nations ambassador – Nikki Haley – disclosed:

 “The president called and he said, ‘Nikki what happened?’ And I told him, and he goes, ‘Who do we need to get upset at? Who do you want me to yell at? Who do we take their money away?’” “I’m not gonna tell you what I told him,” she added.

Trump’s revenge on those 57 dissenting states will be but a small consolation prize if his “deal of the century” is prematurely trashed in the White House shredder.

(Author’s note: The cartoon – commissioned exclusively for this article – is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators – whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog)

David Singer: Trump, Israel, Jordan and Egypt Can Redress Obama-PLO Debacle

Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:

President Trump continues to ponder the way forward to end the 100-years-old conflict between Arabs and Jews – as negotiations between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) – stalled since April 2014 – show no sign of being resumed.

Negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority under the Oslo Accords and the Bush Roadmap - endorsed by Russia, the European Union and the United Nations - were consigned to the graveyard of history after PLO Chairman Mahmoud Abbas unilaterally disbanded the Palestinian Authority on 3 January 2013.

White House Senior Advisor Jared Kushner has been quoted in an off-the-record discussion saying: 

"there may be no solution".

There may however be a solution should Jordan and Egypt – Israel’s immediate neighbours – agree to negotiate with Israel to end the Jewish-Arab conflict.

Filling this potentially explosive negotiating void with Jordan and Egypt will require Trump to first articulate:

1. the parameters and

 2. The fact-based framework

within which such new negotiations should actually be undertaken

The parameters should be restricted to resolving the competing Arab and Jewish claims to sovereignty in the remaining 5 per cent of the territory of the former Mandate for Palestine – Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), East Jerusalem and Gaza – where internationally-recognised sovereignty still remains undetermined (“the disputed territories”).

Conflicting narratives paralysing previous negotiations must be replaced by Trump with a different fact-based framework underpinning any new negotiations  – including:

1. Jordan and Egypt:

· signatories to peace treaties with Israel in 1994 and 1979 respectively and

 · the last Arab States to occupy the disputed territories between 1948 and 1967

are the best Arab interlocutors to determine with Israel the allocation of sovereignty in the disputed territories.

2. The PLO Charter calling for the destruction of both Israel and Jordan disqualifies the PLO from participating in such new negotiations.

3. Hamas – designated as a terrorist organisation by Israel and banned in Jordan – must be excluded from these new negotiations.

4. The new negotiations are being undertaken to resolve the “Jewish-Arab conflict” that began in 1915 – not “the Israeli-Palestinian conflict” that began in 1948

5. Sovereignty in the territory of the Mandate for Palestine has already been granted to Israel (17 per cent), Jordan (78 per cent) – with sovereignty in Judea and Samaria [West Bank], East Jerusalem and Gaza (5 per cent) still undetermined.

6. The Jewish people is legally entitled to reconstitute the Jewish National Home in the disputed territories by close settlement under Article 6 of the 1922 Mandate for Palestine and article 80 of the United Nations Charter  – subject to the civil and religious rights of the non-Jewish communities living there being safeguarded.

7. Misleading and deceptive language referring to the disputed territories as “occupied territory” or “Occupied Palestinian Territories” fail to recognise that it was Jewish occupation in the disputed territories that was first abruptly ended in 1948 – after every single Jew then living there was forcibly driven out by six invading Arab armies and not allowed to return until after the Six Day War in 1967.

Trump has a hard row to hoe in formulating this critical framework  – but do it he must if there is to be any hope of advancing peace in the Middle East.

Such Trump-defined parameters and fact-based framework need to then be mutually agreed by Jordan, Egypt and Israel before formal negotiations can commence.

Any fanfare trumpeting yet another round of negotiations without such tripartite agreement will inevitably see those new negotiations being eventually buried alongside the graves housing the failed Oslo-Roadmap and stalled Israel-PLO negotiations.

Trump, Israel, Jordan and Egypt working together can certainly succeed where Obama and the PLO ignominiously failed.

"That Is What I Teach My Son & What He Will Teach His Son" (video)

"Your enemy is Israel for all eternity," Egyptian television host Khaled al-Abraq (evidently contemptuous of the 1979 Peace Treaty) stresses to viewers on the anniversary of the Yom Kippur War.

(Memri.org video)

The Zionist Entity's Days Are Numbered, Declares Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood Bigwig

"Israel will be erased within ten years," Essam el-Erian,  vice-chairman of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood says.  Talking to the Arabic daily newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat, el-Erian, a leading figure in the Brotherhood-linked Freedom and Justice Party, declares:

"The Jews conquering the historic Palestinian territories are an obstacle to the Right of Return and it is Israel's fate to collapse in the upcoming years.The future name of the country will be Palestine and those who lived there from the beginning will live there and those who conquered it will have to go back to their countries.

I have said that for the Palestinian refugees to return to their homeland, the occupiers of the  land ... these occupiers have previous homelands, and I pray for the return of the Palestinians

There are an estimated 14 million Jews in the world and only about 6 million in the land of Palestine. They can go out to other places they consider the best for them. The Zionist ideology ended in failure and this project [Israel] fated to collapse in coming years.

 There will be no such thing as Israel, it will be called Palestine, where Jews, Muslims, Christians and Druze and all the people who live there will remain Palestinian citizens. This is our faith and this is what we live and strive for. We tell all those who came and occupied Palestine to return to their countries."

Read more here  (Hat tip: Assad Elepty)

Muslim Brotherhood Official On Egypt's Peace With The Zionist Entity (video)

It brought cancer to Egypt, he explains:

(And an Iranian paper says Zionists spread homosexuality to control the world.)

In another recent video clip from MEMRI, we find Garrulous George getting very fiery indeed regarding the absence of jihad in certain countries and contrasting such countries with Iran's aid to the Palestinians:

What the Egyptian Protests May Portend

Professor Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. Below is his “An Interview on the Egyptian Revolt: I'm Worried That Others Aren't Worried”:

1) How do you judge the Egyptian protests?
It is tempting to see this as a revolution that will bring down the regime. But Egypt is not Tunisia. And while the demonstrations are passionate it is not clear that the numbers of participants are huge. If the elite and the army hold together they could well prevail, perhaps by removing Mubarak to save the regime. We should be cautious in drawing conclusions.

2) Do you see the threat of an Islamist takeover by the Ikhwan?
So far the uprising has not been led by the Muslim Brotherhood. But it is the only large organized opposition group. It is hard to see how it would not be the leading force after a while. The leadership would have to decide that it is facing a revolutionary situation and that this is the moment for an all-out effort. But if it does so and fails there will be a terrible repression and the group will be crushed. It appears that the Brotherhood is joining the protests but has not made its basic decision yet. In the longer term if the regime is completely overthrown I do believe the Brotherhood will emerge as the leader and perhaps the ruler of the country.

3) Do you see any chances that Egypt will witness the same model of Iran of 1979, the democratic protests followed by an Islamist rule?
Absolutely yes. On one hand, so far they lack a charismatic leader. On the other hand, alternative non-Islamist leadership is probably weaker than it was in Iran. Remember also that the Iranian revolution went on for almost a year, with the Islamists emerging as leaders only after five or six months. Many experts predicted that moderate democrats would emerge as rulers and said an Islamist regime was impossible but that isn't what happened. I very much hope I am wrong.

4) How the Arab status quo can be reformed and changed without letting the Jihadist fanatics take power? Is it possible to have democracy and liberalism?
One would need strong leaders, strong organizations, an ability to repress opposition, a clear program, and unity, among other things. None of this is present on the moderate democratic side. Again, I wish it was otherwise. More than any other country, reformers –  though not all of them –  have believed they can work with and then manipulate the Islamists. That seems like a mistake.

The chances for democracy and liberalism are different in every country. Tunisia has a good chance because there is a strong middle class and a weak Islamist movement. But in Egypt look at the numbers in the latest Pew poll. http://pewglobal.org/2010/12/02/muslims-around-the-world-divided-on-hamas-and-hezbollah/
In Egypt, 30 percent like Hizballah (66 percent don’t); 49 percent are favorable toward Hamas (48 percent are negative); and 20 percent smile (72 percent frown) at al-Qaida. Roughly speaking, one-fifth of Egyptians applaud the most extreme Islamist terrorist group, while around one-third back revolutionary Islamists abroad. This doesn’t tell us what proportion of Egyptians want an Islamist government at home, but it is an indicator.

In Egypt, 82 percent want stoning for those who commit adultery; 77 percent would like to see whippings and hands cut off for robbery; and 84 percent favor the death penalty for any Muslim who changes his religion.

Asked if they supported “modernizers” or “Islamists” only 27 percent said modernizers while 59 percent said Islamists.

Is this meaningless? Last December 20 I wrote that these “horrifying figures in Egypt…one day might be cited to explain an Islamist revolution there….What this analysis also shows is that a future Islamist revolution in Egypt and Jordan is quite possible.

5) What kind of threat does the Muslim Brotherhood network pose to Israel and the Western democracies?
In power? A huge threat: renewed warfare, overwhelming anti-Americanism, efforts to spread revolution to other moderate states, a potential alignment with Iran and Syria (though that might not happen), incredible damage to Western interests. In short, a real disaster. What shocks me is that Western media and experts seem so carried away by this movement they are only considering a best-case outcome. As I suggested, I would prefer things were otherwise but I am deeply worried and one of the things I'm worried about is that others don't seem to be worried.

The website of the GLORIA Center is at http://www.gloria-center.org/and of Barry Rubin's blog, Rubin Reports, http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com/