David Singer: Knifing Netanyahu Could Sink Release of Trump Peace Plan

Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:

From most reports, Israel’s Prime Minister – Benjamin Netanyahu – will soon be finished politically – forced to resign as Israel’s longest serving Prime Minister to defend three indictments levelled against him by Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit.

The first indictment involves bribery, fraud and breach of trust in Case 4000 – the Bezeq-Walla Affair; the second-fraud and breach of trust in Case 1000 – the Illegal Gifts Affair; and the third for fraud and breach of trust in Case 2000 – the Yediot Ahronot-Israel Hayom Affair.

One consequence of Netanyahu’s exit from politics – if it does happen – could see President Trump having second thoughts about releasing his long-awaited and eagerly-anticipated deal of the century to end the 100 years old Arab-Jewish conflict (deal) – which Trump had already promised to release after Israel’s next Government is formed.

A government without Netanyahu at the helm would pose a serious problem for Trump – who has forged a unique relationship of respect and mutual trust with Netanyahu that no other Israeli politician enjoys.

Trump is not in the business of seeing anything he proposes fail – especially this deal. Trump does not want to join former Presidents Reagan, Carter, Clinton, Bush and Obama – whose well-intentioned proposals to resolve the long-running Arab-Jewish conflict have ended up in the garbage bin of history.

Trump has carefully crafted the drip release of his deal over the last two years – possibly in close consultation with Netanyahu – to give Israel the best hope it has ever had of finally reaching
agreement with purposeful Arab negotiators. Trump’s failure so far to find such Arab negotiators has been a major factor in delaying the deal’s release.

The Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) has made it abundantly clear that it will not negotiate with Israel on Trump’s deal under any circumstances.

Egypt and Jordan – the only two Arab states to have signed peace treaties with Israel in 1979 and 1994 – and the last two Arab States to have occupied Gaza and Judea and Samaria between 1948 and 1967 – still seem to be bucking at announcing their readiness to negotiate with Israel on Trump’s deal.

Trump will seemingly not release the final details of his deal unless he first receives Arab assurances to bona fide negotiate with Israel in translating those details into binding commitments to end the long-running conflict.

Trump will not release his deal only to find it is dead in the water because no Arab negotiators will sit down with Israel.

Trump is interested in winning – not losing before he even jumps out of the starting gate.

Trump will need to now be satisfied that any new Israeli Prime Minister possesses the same views as Netanyahu on the issuesTrump has already identified as integral elements of his deal:

• extending Israeli sovereignty toJewish towns and villages in Judea and Samaria,

• declaring Jerusalem to be Israel’s eternal capital

• recognising Israeli sovereignty in the Golan Heights

Trump will now also need to be assured that any new Israeli Prime Minister will not call on Trump to renew America’s payments to UNRWA and UNESCO, to reopen the PLO Embassy in Washington or resume funding to the PLO.

Netanyahu’s uncertain political future and the absence of Arab negotiators ready to stand up and be counted – could see Trump’s deal being put on the political back burner until Trump’s bid for re-election for another four years is known on 3 November 2020.

Knifing Netanyahu introduces yet another wild card that could sink the release of Trump’s deal – leavingthe failed leadership of the PLO cheering and heaving huge sighs of relief.

Author’s note:The cartoon —commissioned exclusively for this article —is by Yaakov Kirschenaka “Dry Bones” —one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators —whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

David Singer: Netanyahu and Trump Hatch Plan for a Jordan Exclave in West Bank

Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s last-minute election pledge to apply Israeli sovereignty in parts of the West Bank could possibly see a large part of the remainder of the West Bank being offered to Jordan as an exclave in direct negotiations between Jordan and Israel.

An exclave is a piece of land that is politically attached to a larger piece but not physically conterminous (having the same borders) with it because of surrounding foreign territory.
Netanyahu’s pledge was clear:

“We will apply sovereignty in the Jordan Valley and the Northern Dead Sea as soon as the next government is established in the next Knesset.  Today I have appointed a working team led by the director-general of my ministry, Ronen Peretz, to formulate an outline for applying sovereignty to the Jordan Valley and the northern Dead Sea”

Netanyahu has now gone even further reportedly saying that if re-elected he plans to annex additional “vital” parts of the West Bank in coordination with the United States.
Trump’s Ambassador in Israel, David Friedman, has already indicated that Trump’s plan will not call for the creation of an additional Arab state between Israel and Jordan based on the 1949 ceasefire lines agreed between those two former enemies.

Friedman declared:

“Under certain circumstances, I think Israel has the right to retain some, but unlikely all, of the West Bank.”

Friedman then declined to say how the United States would respond if Netanyahu moved to annex West Bank land unilaterally – stating:

“We really don’t have a view until we understand how much, on what terms, why does it make sense, why is it good for Israel, why is it good for the region, why does it not create more problems than it solves. These are all things that we’d want to understand, and I don’t want to prejudge.”

Trump seemingly has not yet secured an ironclad guarantee from Jordan or any other Arab interlocutor that they stand ready to negotiate with Israel on Trump’s plan. Releasing it without such a guarantee would constitute political suicide for Trump.

Netanyahu’s pledges provide sufficient justification for Trump to further postpone his deal’s release.
One can visualise Trump’s advisers carefully scrutinising Netanyahu’s final map – or any map drawn up by a non-Netanyahu led Government – prior to Trump releasing his deal – to see if common agreement can first be reached on Israel’s demands – and then advancing to the next stage to see if agreement between Trump and Netanyahu – or Israel’s new Prime Minister – can be reached on what should happen in the remainder of the West Bank.

It would then make sense for Trump’s plan to be released only after concluding these discussions.
Trump will not be proposing the creation of any new Jew-free State in all of the West Bank for the first time in recorded history – whilst the PLO has rejected negotiating on Trump’s deal if it does not meet these core demands articulated by Abbas and the PLO.

Two solutions therefore emerge for resolving sovereignty in the remainderof the West Bankterritorythat will notcome under Israeli sovereignty:

• Israel unilaterally annexes that territory including its existing Arab population
• Israel and Jordan create a Jordan exclave within that territory as may be agreed in direct negotiations.

A Jordan exclave would materially help end the 100-years-old Arab-Jewish conflict.
Details such as the demilitarization of the exclave and who controls access into and egress from the exclave would be negotiated.

Trump is the driving force to bring Israel and Jordan together to enable these negotiations to be successfully concluded.

 Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones” —  one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

David Singer: Trump Seems Set to See Netanyahu as Israel’s Next Prime Minister

Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:

President Trump seems set to see Bibi Netanyahu re-elected as Israel’s next prime minister in the upcoming elections to be held on 17 September – the second this year following an indecisive vote in April that left no one able to form government.

Early voting by eligible Israeli diplomats and emissaries around the world has seen a drop in their turnout from 76 per cent in April to 69 per cent in September.

If general voters follow the diplomats’ lead next week:

1. The voter turnout of 67.97 per cent in April 2019 will be further reduced.
2. Netanyahu’s Likud party will increase its proportion of the vote – 26.46 per cent in April 2019 – up from 23.4 per cent in 2015 – to an even higher figure.

Likud increased its numbers from 985,408 in 2015 to 1,140,370 in April 2019 – whilst Yisrael Beiteinu’s numbers decreased from 214,906 in 2015 to 173,004 in April 2019. Blue and White contested the April elections for the first time.

Likud voters – buoyed by the post-April statements detailed in 1, 2 and 3 below – will most likely vote again – whilst Blue and White and Yisrael Beiteinu voters – unhappy with their leaders’ post-April statements detailed in 4 and 5 below – are more likely to stay home.

Any increase in general voter turnout this time beyond 67.97 per cent would defy the diplomatic downturn – but should still see parties on the Right securing more of those new votes than parties on the Left. Statements made since April by Trump’s Ambassador to Israel David Friedman, President Trump himself, Likud’s Netanyahu, Yisrael Beiteinu’s Lieberman and Blue and White’s Gantz support this conclusion.

      1. Ambassador Friedman indicated that some degree of annexation of the West Bank would be legitimate.

 “Under certain circumstances, I think Israel has the right to retain some, but unlikely all, of the West Bank”

More new voters – conscious of their own families’ personal safety – would vote Right – than those opposing any annexation – who would vote Left.

2. Trump endorsed Netanyahu as “a great guy”
3. Netanyahu – speaking in Elkana – located in Samaria – pledged:

“With God’s help we will extend Jewish sovereignty to all the settlements as part of the (biblical) Land of Israel, as part of the State of Israel. “This is our land…”We will build another Elkana and another Elkana and another Elkana. We will not uproot anyone here”

In a first-ever public address from Hebron by a sitting Israeli prime minister – Netanyahu vowed:

“To cite the late Menachem Begin and the late Yigal Allon: ‘Hebron will not be devoid of Jews.’ It will not be Judenrein [ed: i.e. Jew-free]. And I say on the 90th anniversary of the disturbances [ed: when 67 Jews were murdered] – we are not foreigners in Hebron, we will stay here forever.” 

These patriotic declarations should attract more Right-supportive than Left-opposing new voters.

4. Lieberman promised to amend the law to make ultra-orthodox youths do compulsory military training.

United Torah Judaism MK Yakov Asher has declared this the best possible get-out-the-vote campaign the ultra-Orthodox parties could wish for.

New ultra-orthodox voters turning out to spare children in their ultra-orthodox community undertaking this military obligation would likely exceed new secular voters who think this is a reform long overdue.

5. Trump’s judgment has been challenged by Gantz stating he would have admitted US Congresswomen Omar and Tlaib into Israel.

Gantz’s decision would not resonate with a majority of new voters – who would consider any disagreement with Trump could jeopardise Trump’s amazing support of Israel during his presidency.

Trump and Netanyahu appear destined to continue their very special relationship after the votes have been counted.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones” — one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

David Singer: Netanyahu will be Israel’s next Prime Minister – with Trump’s help

Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:

The abrupt termination of Israel’s 21st Parliament with new elections being called for 17 September has seen the New York Times claiming that Israel has been plunged into unprecedented political chaos.

A more sober assessment – based on comparing Israel’s 2015 election results with the April 2019 results – provides a different picture – in which Prime Minister Netanyahu will be returned once again as Israel’s next Prime Minister.

In an earlier article written in March, I opined:

“The cards have certainly been stacked against Benjamin Netanyahu being Israel’s next Prime Minister after three recent major developments — but he is by no means down and out.”

Those developments were:

1. Israeli Attorney-General Avichai Mandelblit’s decision to pursue Netanyahu for alleged criminal offences.
2. Three political parties coalescing into the Blue and White Party — promising that two of the three previous leaders — former Chief of Staff Benny Gantz and Yesh Atid’s Yair Lapid — would each be Prime Minister for half of the next Government’s term of office.
3. Netanyahu’s role in precipitating a marriage of convenience between Jewish Home, National Union and an extreme right-wing party Otzma Yehudit with alleged links to the assassinated Rabbi Meir Kahane’s banned political party Kach

I pointed out then that:

“The 2015 election results provide a useful guide as to the likely impact these three developments might have on Netanyahu’s chances:

• the Likud Party only received 23.4% of the vote—hardly a ringing endorsement for Netanyahu and
• 72% of those eligible voted—very high when compared to America’s 58.1%.

Likud’s low supporter-base seems unlikely to desert Netanyahu.
Voter turnout would have to increase dramatically or huge swings away from other right-wing parties would be needed to give Blue and White the nod needed to be invited by President Rivlin to form a coalition Government ahead of Netanyahu.
The unknown elephants in the room are the number of terrorist attacks and international political developments affecting Israel in the next five weeks that will concentrate voters’ minds — when actually casting their votes – on who can best safeguard their personal safety and Israel’s security.
Netanyahu is certainly not out of the race”.

Netanyahu won that race – the April 2019 election results revealing:

1. Voter turnout went down from 72% to 68%
2. Netanyahu’s Likud party vote went up from 23.4% to 26.46%
3. The party forcing the fresh September elections by refusing to join a Likud-led coalition – Yisrael Beiteinu headed by Avigdor Liberman – saw its vote reduced from 214906 to 173004

These results should become more pronounced after voters evaluate the outcome of the Conference to be co-hosted by President Trump and Bahrein in Manama on 25/26 June to be attended by Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Qatar – with Egypt, Jordan and Israel (represented by Netanyahu’s caretaker Government) and other regional Arab states expected to also attend.
The US State Department has confirmed the Conference will go ahead notwithstanding Israel’s snap elections in September.
Add to this the likely possibility that before the September elections:

• Trump could recognise Israel’s political claims to sovereignty in Judea and Samaria (West Bank) as he did in the Golan Heights prior to the April elections
• There could be further terror attacks against Israel from Gaza and the West Bank followed by swift Netanyahu-directed responses

Trump has already pronounced his feelings on Israel’s September elections:

“Bibi got elected. Now, all of a sudden, they’re going to have to go through the process again until September? That’s ridiculous.”

Netanyahu – based on the April 2019 election results and Trump’s anticipated pro-Israel decisions – is odds-on favourite to be Israel’s next Prime Minister.

(Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog)

David Singer: Trump Should Dump PLO and Jump-Start Israel-Jordan Negotiations

Image credit: Israelidiplomacy.com

Here is the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:

President Trump has completed six months in office without managing to get Israel and the PLO to resume their negotiations – stalled since April 2014.

Trump’s failure has not been for lack of trying.

The President has turned on his political charm offensive – inviting both Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and PLO Chairman Mahmoud Abbas to the White House – whilst making personal visits to Jerusalem and Bethlehem – all apparently to no avail.

Senior Advisor to the President Jared Kushner, Assistant to the President and Special Representative for International Negotiations Jason Greenblatt, and United States Ambassador to Israel David Friedman have been actively engaged on the ground in both Jerusalem and Ramallah in talks with Israel and the PLO – yet nothing of significance has emerged to indicate the PLO is ready to meet Israel without preconditions face to face across the negotiating table.

Even if these two adversaries resumed negotiations – there appears little chance of the PLO modifying demands that:

1. it be granted sovereignty over every square metre of Judea and Samaria (“the disputed territories”) and

2. Jerusalem be divided.

Offers by Israel in 2000/2001 and 2008 to cede its claims in more than 90% of the disputed territories have already been rejected by the PLO.

Trump needs to identify a new Arab partner to replace the PLO and join Israel in allocating sovereignty of the disputed territories between Jews and Arabs.

That partner should be Jordan – for four compelling reasons:

1. Jordan and Israel have enjoyed a signed peace treaty since 1994 which already contains provisions for resolving contentious issues in the disputed territories such as water, and refugees – and Jerusalem.

2. The PLO Charter does not recognise Jordan or Israel’s right to exist as separate territorial units:

 “Palestine, with the boundaries it had during the British Mandate, is an indivisible territorial unit.'

Palestine during the British Mandate (1922-1948) encompassed Israel, the disputed territories and Jordan.

3. Jordan’s 

· invasion and annexation of the disputed territories contrary to international law between 1948 and 1967

· continuing role in the disputed territories by extending Jordanian citizenship to the Arabs resident there until 1988 stamp it as eminently suited to resolve a problem it helped to create.

4. History, geography and demography qualify Jordan and Israel – the two successor States to 95% of the territory of the British Mandate – to resolve sovereignty over the disputed territories – just 4% of the Mandate.

Netanyahu eloquently articulated this position at the United Nations on 11 December 1984:

“Clearly, in Eastern and Western Palestine, there are only two peoples, the Arabs and the Jews. Just as clearly, there are only two states in that area, Jordan and Israel. The Arab State of Jordan, containing some three million Arabs, does not allow a single Jew to live there. It also contains four-fifths of the territory originally allocated by this body's predecessor, the League of Nations, for the Jewish National Home. The other State, Israel, has a population of over four million, of which one sixth is Arab. It contains less than one fifth of the territory originally allocated to the Jews under the Mandate.... It cannot be said, therefore, that the Arabs of Palestine are lacking a state of their own. The demand for a second Palestinian Arab State in Western Palestine, and a 22nd Arab State in the world, is merely the latest attempt to push Israel back into the hopelessly vulnerable armistice lines of 1949.”

This fetid swamp urgently needs draining – Israel and Jordan are the parties that can make it happen.

President Trump – over to you to weave your proven negotiating skills.

David Singer: Trump Should Move Pollard to Jerusalem

Close on the heels of retired British academic Brian Goldfarb's guest blog yesterday about the Six Day War comes the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer, regarding Jonathan Pollard.  The image at left shows street artist Solomon Souza's portrait of Pollard spray-painted at the Mahane Yehuda Market, Jerusalem.

Writes David Singer:

President Trump's delay in moving the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem presents the President with a wonderful opportunity to commute Jonathan Pollard's sentence – freeing Pollard to move from New York to Jerusalem.

Trump made his unequivocal Embassy pledge on 22 March 2016:

"We will move the American embassy to the eternal capital of the Jewish people, Jerusalem."

A White House statement on 1 June put this brave face on Trump 's decision delaying the Embassy move:

"While President Donald J. Trump signed the waiver under the Jerusalem Embassy Act and delayed moving the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, no one should consider this step to be in any way a retreat from the President's strong support for Israel and for the United States-Israel alliance. President Trump made this decision to maximize the chances of successfully negotiating a deal between Israel and the Palestinians, fulfilling his solemn obligation to defend America's national security interests. But, as he has repeatedly stated his intention to move the embassy, the question is not if that move happens, but only when."

Negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Arabs have so far extended over a period of 23 years without any real success - so one can only wonder when the Embassy move is likely to occur.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's response was quite philosophical:

"Though Israel is disappointed that the embassy will not move at this time, we appreciate today's expression of President Trump's friendship to Israel and his commitment to moving the embassy in the future"

Trump's friendship would be confirmed were he to commute Pollard's life sentence and harsh parole conditions to enable Pollard's move to Jerusalem,

Pollard – an intelligence analyst with the US Government – received his life sentence for passing classified information to an American ally – Israel. No other American has received such a crushing sentence.

Pollard – released in 2015 after serving 30 years penal servitude – was placed on harsh parole conditions requiring him to wear an electronic tracking device, obey a curfew and allow his computers to be monitored. He must remain in the United States until November 2020.

Pollard's appeal to relax his parole conditions was recently rejected.

Pollard's treatment can be contrasted to that meted out to Bradley (now known as Chelsea) Manning  – who leaked more than 700,000 documents to WikiLeaks in 2010 whilst serving as an intelligence analyst in Iraq,

Manning was sentenced to 35 years in prison.

President Obama commuted Manning’s sentence in January – three days before vacating the White House – from 35 years to just over 7 years, the majority of which Manning had already served. Trump said Manning should never have been released from prison.

Manning was freed from federal custody on May 17th.

Israeli Prime Ministers from Yitzchak Rabin to Netanyahu had unsuccessfully lobbied successive Republican and Democratic Presidents for Pollard's release and permission to resettle in Israel.
Pollard is recently reported to have remarked:

“As much as Trump needs to be held to his promise to move the embassy, it is just as important that the prime minister keep his promise to bring an agent home"

President Obama's precedent in freeing Manning whilst resisting similar overtures for Pollard's release was reprehensible.

Commuting Pollard's sentence at this particular moment in Trump's presidency will help cement the blossoming post-Obama relationship between the United States and one of its staunchest allies – Israel.

Pollard's move to Jerusalem as it celebrates the 50th anniversary of its liberation from 19 years of illegal occupation by Jordan would alleviate the disappointment of the Embassy not moving there.

That is what Trump-style deal-making is all about.

David Singer: Trump Signals Abbas Must End Indiscriminate Slaughter of Jews

Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:

The horrific carnage perpetrated in Manchester on 22 May presented an emotion-charged backdrop to two meetings the next day between President Trump and President Abbas in Bethlehem and President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu in Jerusalem.
Trump pointedly told Abbas:

“Peace can never take root in an environment where violence is tolerated, funded and even rewarded. We must be resolute in condemning such acts in a single, unified voice. Peace is a choice we must make each day – and the United States is here to help make that dream possible for young Jewish, Christian and Muslim children all across the region.” 

Netanyahu did not mince his words, telling Trump:

“Terrorism, the deliberate slaughter of innocents, must be equally condemned and equally fought, whether it strikes in Europe, in America or in Israel – or for that matter, anywhere else. And as you said this morning, Mr. President, funding and rewarding terrorism must end.

Standing next to you, President Abbas condemned the horrific attack in Manchester. Well, I hope this heralds a real change, because if the attacker had been Palestinian and the victims had been Israeli children, the suicide bomber’s family would have received a stipend from the Palestinian Authority. That’s Palestinian law. That law must be changed.” 

Abbas presides over the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) whose Charter openly promotes a culture of violence and incitement urging Palestinian Arabs to kill Jews.

Article 7 of the Charter provides: 

“It is a national duty to bring up individual Palestinians in an Arab revolutionary manner … He must be prepared for the armed struggle and ready to sacrifice his wealth and his life in order to win back his homeland and bring about its liberation.” 

Article 9 prescribes: 

“Armed struggle is the only way to liberate Palestine. This it is the overall strategy, not merely a tactical phase. The Palestinian Arab people assert their absolute determination and firm resolution to continue their armed struggle and to work for an armed popular revolution for the liberation of their country and their return to it”

Article 10 declares: 

“Commando action constitutes the nucleus of the Palestinian popular liberation war. This requires its escalation, comprehensiveness, and the mobilization of all the Palestinian popular and educational efforts and their organization and involvement in the armed Palestinian revolution.” 

Every time a Jew is stabbed, run over, murdered in his bed or whilst praying in a Synagogue, blown up dining in a restaurant or attending a nightclub, killed by stones thrown at his car or targeted in drive by shootings, Palestinian Arabs – radicalised and encouraged by the PLO Charter to perpetrate such heinous crimes – are treated as heroes, many having schools named after them. Their families are rewarded by Abbas paying them monthly pensions which totalled $300 million in 2016.

Abbas declared on 16 September 2015: 

"We bless every drop of blood that has been spilled for Jerusalem, which is clean and pure blood, blood spilled for Allah, Allah willing. Every Martyr (Shahid) will reach Paradise, and everyone wounded will be rewarded by Allah."  

Trump told the Arab-Islamic-American Summit in Riyadh on 21 May: 

“A better future is only possible if your nations drive out the terrorists and extremists. Drive. Them. Out. DRIVE THEM OUT of your places of worship. DRIVE THEM OUT of your communities. DRIVE THEM OUT of your holy land, and DRIVE THEM OUT OF THIS EARTH.” 

Trashing the hate-filled PLO Charter and ending incitement to indiscriminately slaughter Jews are necessary steps in this process.

Abbas will end up in the diplomatic wilderness if he ignores the messages delivered by both Trump and Netanyahu. 

David Singer: Netanyahu Needs Trump Answer on Bush-Congress Commitments to Israel

Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.

He writes:

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will be meeting America’s President Trump on 15 February under very different circumstances to those when Netanyahu met President Obama on 20 May 2011.

President Obama had delivered a wide-ranging address on the Middle East just the day before when he dropped the following bombshell on his view of how negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority should proceed:

“The United States believes that negotiations should result in two states, with permanent Palestinian borders with Israel, Jordan, and Egypt, and permanent Israeli borders with Palestine. We believe the borders of Israel and Palestine should be based on the 1967 lines with mutually agreed swaps, so that secure and recognized borders are established for both states. The Palestinian people must have the right to govern themselves, and reach their full potential, in a sovereign and contiguous state.” 

Before boarding his plane for Washington Netanyahu said he:

“expects to hear a reaffirmation from President Obama of American commitments made to Israel in 2004 which were overwhelmingly supported by both Houses of Congress”

Those 2004 commitments to Israel had been made by President Bush in a letter to Israel’s then Prime Minister Ariel Sharon dated 14 April 2004 (“the Bush Commitments”).

Obama never obliged Netanyahu by reaffirming those Bush Commitments.

Neither did Netanyahu press Obama to do so – though he had opportunities during

* Remarks by Obama and Netanyahu After their Bilateral Meeting

* An address by Netanyahu to AIPAC on 23 May 2011

* An emotion-charged speech Netanyahu gave to a joint sitting of the Congress on 24 May 2011

Netanyahu’s failure to mention the Bush Commitments in his Congress speech was a grievous error of judgement – since those commitments to Israel had been endorsed in the House – 407 votes to 9  – and in the Senate – 95 votes to 3.

Such commitments had been given to support Israel’s unilateral disengagement from Gaza and part of the West Bank – marking real progress in realizing Bush’s Roadmap – and included the following: 

“In light of new realities on the ground, including already existing major Israeli populations centers, it is unrealistic to expect that the outcome of final status negotiations will be a full and complete return to the armistice lines of 1949, and all previous efforts to negotiate a two-state solution have reached the same conclusion. It is realistic to expect that any final status agreement will only be achieved on the basis of mutually agreed changes that reflect these realities.” 

Bush’s “mutually agreed changes” differed markedly from Obama’s “mutually agreed swaps”– which required Israel to swap some of its sovereign territory to gain sovereignty over any territory in the West Bank.

Under the Bush Commitments no such land swaps were required.

Obama had repudiated his predecessor’s commitments to Israel with this sneaky turn of phrase - adding insult to injury by demeaning Congress for its enthusiastic and overwhelming endorsement of the Bush Commitments.

In his AIPAC address Netanyahu made mention of Israel’s: 

“terrific Ambassador to the United States, a man who knows a few things about the U.S.-Israel alliance, Michael Oren” 

Michael Oren – now a Knesset member – made the following call on 5 January 2015: 

“The time has come to revive Bush's letter to Sharon and to act in accordance with it.”

As Netanyahu readies for his ground-breaking meeting with Trump he needs to heed Oren’s call and get a definitive answer this time from both Trump and the Congress.

America’s reputation and integrity as a trustworthy ally that honours its commitments is at stake.

Lightning can indeed strike twice in the White House and on Capitol Hill.