Here's the latest article by Sydney lawyer and international affairs analyst David Singer.
He writes:
King Abdullah seems increasingly hell-bent on ending 99 years of Hashemite-dynasty rule in Jordan.
This possibility is emerging as Abdullah is:
- Seemingly refusing to commit to negotiating with Israel on President
Trump’s soon-to-be-released deal of the century to end the Jewish-Arab
conflict and
- Taking active steps to place the Jordan-Israel Peace Treaty in jeopardy.
Transjordan (renamed Jordan in 1950) has always been the key to
resolving competing territorial claims by both Arabs and Jews in former
Palestine.
Transjordan comprised 78 per cent of the territory placed under the League of
Nations Mandate for Palestine after being wrested from 400 years of
Ottoman Empire sovereignty during World War One.
Mandatory Palestine was
designated in April 1920 by the Principal Allied Powers at the San Remo
Conference and in August 1920 by article 95 of the Treaty of Sevres as
the location for reconstitution of the ancient and biblical homeland of
the Jewish people.
Transjordan’s first Hashemite ruler – Abdullah I – arrived there in
November 1920.
Abdullah was en route by train from Hijaz to Syria with armed forces
to assist his brother Feisal in his struggle with France to retain power
in Syria. Winston Churchill – at France’s request – offered Abdullah an
Emirate in Transjordan – which Abdullah gratefully accepted on
11 April 1921.
Feisal was removed from Syria by the French and installed as ruler of
Iraq under the Anglo-Iraqi Treaty dated 10 October 1922. France became
the Mandatory for the territory comprised in the
Mandate for Syria and Lebanon.
These British-Franco machinations cost the Jewish people dearly, when the Mandate for Palestine – adopted unanimously by all 51 members
of the League of Nations on 24 July 1922 – denied the Jewish people the
right to reconstitute the Jewish National Home in any part of
Transjordan (Eastern Palestine) and restricted that right to the
remaining 22 percent (Western Palestine).
The Jews reluctantly accepted this decision. The Arabs didn’t.
In 1946 Transjordan was granted independence by Great Britain.
In 1948 – immediately after the Mandate ended and Jews declared the
State of Israel – Transjordan invaded Western Palestine, conquering
Judea, Samaria and East Jerusalem (comprising 4 per cent of Mandatory Palestine)
– and unified these areas with Transjordan to form a new territorial
entity – Jordan – encompassing 82 per cent of Mandatory Palestine completely
devoid of Jews.
The founding Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) Charter in 1964
specifically excluded any PLO claim to sovereignty in Judea and Samaria.
In the 1967 Six Day War Israel captured Judea and Samaria from
Jordan. The PLO – claiming Jordan and Israel to be one indivisible
territorial unit – removed its non-claim to sovereignty from the revised
1968 Charter.
In September 1970 the PLO unsuccessfully tried to overthrow Jordan’s Hashemite ruler King Hussein. Israel helped save Hussein.
Israel and Jordan signed a peace treaty 1994 (Peace Treaty) – which
has withstood many events that could have seen its termination.
That Treaty is again under threat – as Jordan has:
- indicated it is not prepared to renew an expired 25-year lease of Jordanian sovereign territory farmed by Israelis and
- given the PLO 40% representation on the body charged with
administering the Moslem Holy Sites in Jerusalem – breaching the
Washington Declaration and the Peace Treaty.
Jordan’s resistance to negotiating with Israel on Trump’s plan could
see Trump shelving it and abruptly ending the 2018 five years $1.275
billion
America–Jordan Memorandum of Understanding underpinning Jordan’s security and stability.
The PLO – as in 1970 – is waiting in the wings as current
ongoing unrest in Jordan is destabilizing continuing Hashemite rule there.
Abdullah might find that spurning Trump and Israel could see him facing the PLO on his own.